Strategic Stockpile Framework
The stockpile thesis.
Written in 2024. Policy has since moved the same way.
Rare earths · Strategic rare earth reserve framework
In 2024 Michael set out why the West could not out-build China in rare earths in time – but could out-structure it: physical material held outside China as an active catalyst, designed with the industrial users who depend on it. Since then, the United States, Australia and the European Union have committed billions to the same idea. How such a reserve is designed, funded and run – so that it moves supply chains rather than just storing tonnes – is what MPC brings to the table.
An analytical framework developed by MPC. Not an investment offering and not open for subscription.
The Objective
Break the loop that stalls supply chains outside China – from both sides at once.
Developers cannot finance new capacity without binding offtake. Buyers cannot sign offtake without assured delivery. Governments hesitate to commit until both ends are certain. Meanwhile, greenfield rare earth projects take a decade or more to reach full output, and the West stays exposed.
The framework was built to break that loop, with physical material as the lever: held outside China, designed around the specifications of the industrial users who depend on it, and deployed so that access to it helps new capacity get financed and built.
Why a Strategic Rare Earth Reserve
The white paper, then five questions every strategic reserve has to answer – the answers stay under NDA.
- 01The White Paper
- 02The Loop
- 03Designed Around the User
- 04From Reserve to Financial Close
- 05Heavy Rare Earths First
- 06Written Early, Checked Against What Happened
The White Paper
The MPC Critical Raw Material Fund · April 2025 · 63 pages
Michael set out the thesis, the market case and the blueprint for a strategic rare earth reserve in a 63-page white paper: why the West cannot out-build China in time, where the loop between capital, offtake and supply breaks, and how physical material, industrial users and public and private capital can be brought together to break it.
The paper has been shared with prospective partners under NDA.
The value: a complete, worked-through blueprint – ready to put in front of the teams building these vehicles.
The Loop
Why supply chains outside China stall
Capital is not what is missing. Governments, lenders and industrial buyers each wait for the other to move first, so projects with resources, permits and willing buyers still fail to reach a final investment decision.
The framework starts from that diagnosis: where the chain is stuck, who holds which risk, and what it takes for each party to commit.
The value: a clear view of where capital is stuck – and why money alone does not unstick it.
Designed Around the User
Specifications · Forecasts · Access
A reserve is only as valuable as its fit with what magnet makers can qualify: the element, its form, its purity and when it is needed. Material held in the wrong form protects nobody.
The framework starts at the OEM and Tier 1 end – where Michael spent half his career – and works back upstream to what should be held, where, and on what terms.
The value: a reserve industrial users can actually draw on, not a stockpile on paper.
From Reserve to Financial Close
Access · Offtake · Bankability
Holding material is the easy part. The value lies in using contracted access to it so that the missing links – separation, metal, alloy and magnet capacity – can be financed and built.
The framework sets out how access, offtake and delivery assurance can work together so that lenders see a bankable project and buyers see assured supply. The instruments themselves are shared under NDA.
The value: new capacity brought to financial close through commercial agreement, not subsidy alone.
Heavy Rare Earths First
Dysprosium · Terbium
Dysprosium and terbium are used in small quantities, yet a shortfall stops whole vehicle platforms. They are where China’s controls bit first and where prices outside China moved furthest.
The framework treats them on their own terms: different volumes, different qualification and different timing from NdPr.
The value: priority where exposure is highest and the market thinnest.
Written Early, Checked Against What Happened
2024 thesis · 2025 – 2026 policy
The framework made four calls: the offtake loop would decide who builds; physical material outside China would become the strategic lever; public and private capital would have to combine; and industrial users would have to be at the table.
Since then, governments have announced reserve and stockpiling measures along the same lines: Australia’s Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve (April 2025), the EU’s RESourceEU plan (December 2025) and the US Project Vault (February 2026). The framework itself is MPC’s proprietary research; it has not been commissioned or implemented by any government.
The value: a thesis tested by events – and the thinking to make the next stage work.
The Result
Governments are now acting on the idea. The next question is execution.
Governments have committed the capital and traders are handling the sourcing. What decides whether these reserves move supply chains or merely store material is design: what is held, for whom, on which terms, and how access turns into new capacity. That part of the framework stays under NDA – and it is the conversation Michael is ready to have with the teams building these vehicles.
Building or running a strategic reserve?
For reserve operators, sovereign and strategic investors, fund managers
How we start
A working session first
Michael brings the framework and fifteen years on both sides of the rare earth chain – as an adviser, on a project or in a senior role. The full white paper is shared under NDA.
Book a 30-minute callFree, no obligation – you leave with a clear next step.
Confidential Briefing
Reserve operators · Sovereign & strategic investors · Fund managers · Under NDA
A one-to-one briefing on the Strategic Stockpile Framework: what a reserve should hold and for whom, how access, offtake and delivery assurance work together, and how the instruments would apply to your mandate. Held in person or online, once an NDA is in place.
Request the briefingEvery request is reviewed and answered personally by Michael.
