Peak Resources
The rare earth thesis, written early.
Checked against what happened.
Rare earths · NdPr market thesis, investor positioning, commercial strategy and M&A case
Peak Resources set out to develop one of the best NdPr deposits outside China and to give the market the story behind it. As General Manager Sales, Marketing & Business Development, Michael built the commercial function: the market thesis, the commercial chapter of the bankable feasibility study (BFS), the go-to-market and the commercial case for Mountain Pass.
Facing a similar challenge? See how we start ↓Perth, Australia
Project recap · Peak Resources · 72 s
The engagement in a minute
The Objective
Give one of the best NdPr deposits outside China a market story institutions could act on.
Peak Resources was developing the Ngualla project in Tanzania, with a bankable feasibility study under way and 57 other rare earth projects competing for the same capital. In 2016 neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) was still a specialist subject for most investors, banks and OEMs.
The CEO and Michael agreed the plan: build the commercial function from the ground up – the market thesis, the commercial chapter of the bankable feasibility study (BFS), the go-to-market across China, Japan and Central Europe, and the commercial case for the consortium’s bid on Mountain Pass.
What Michael Put in Place
Four pieces of work over four and a half years on the executive team – with the value of each.
- 01The White Paper
- 02The Commercial Chapter of the BFS
- 03Go-to-Market
- 04The M&A Commercial Case
The White Paper: The NdPr Market Thesis
NdPr: The Biggest Blind Spot in the Global Commodity Market · 115 pages · October 2017
Michael wrote the market thesis from scratch: 115 pages from Chinese supply and separation to magnets, motors, wind, robotics and drones, with prices, dates and substitution thresholds. Nine years on, the calls have been checked against what happened: 741.7 GW of wind by 2020 (actual 743 GW), 9–12 million electric cars by 2020 (actual about 10 million), robotics as the great disruptor, separation as the point of control.
The value: a story institutions could act on: coverage in Asian Metal and Mining.com, broker roadshows in Sydney and Melbourne and a UBS-hosted investor call.
The Commercial Chapter of the BFS
Marketing and sales strategy · Data room
The white paper was one part of a larger marketing and sales strategy that went into Peak’s bankable feasibility study and data room: product-market strategy, contract structure (fixed, floating, spot), key-account model, downstream services, and the operating framework for a sales and marketing function. Written to survive lender and investor due diligence, and benchmarked against 58 rare earth projects worldwide. The 38 with at least a completed economic study (PEA) – across 16 countries – were analysed in depth with Adamas Intelligence, on an arm’s-length basis.
The value: a commercial case lenders and investors could rely on, in the data room.
Given the strategic significance of this commodity, not having the means and expertise to separate the final rare earth elements means losing ultimate control over the pricing and supply chain.
Go-to-Market
China · Japan · Central Europe
Michael ran the sales and business development strategy across China, Japan and Central Europe – and opened Peak to the investors, media and industrial partners that mattered, in the markets where NdPr demand was heading.
The value: Peak became a reference case for an integrated, non-Chinese NdPr supplier, with access to an investment community that was only beginning to discover the metal.
The M&A Commercial Case
Mountain Pass · 2017 · Foresight, confirmed
In 2017 the only rare earth mine in the United States was for sale out of bankruptcy: more than US$1 billion of infrastructure, priced at tens of millions. Michael built the commercial due diligence, market, pricing and early-revenue plan for the consortium bid led by CEO Darren Townsend with Appian, Pala and ERP. His conclusion was clear – at that price, Mountain Pass was one of the most undervalued strategic assets in the Western world. The bid fell short by half a million dollars, and the winning group became MP Materials, today America’s rare earth champion.
The value: the right read on value – years before the market priced it in. That judgement is what MPC brings to every client.
The Result
Early. Right. Commercial.
The white paper gave Peak a story institutions could act on, the BFS a commercial chapter built for due diligence, and the consortium a case on Mountain Pass that the years since have confirmed. The shortage the paper anticipated arrived through Chinese export controls rather than scarcity: the risk was right, the route was political.
Michael brought something rare to a junior developer: a commercial executive who had actually sold rare earths to global OEMs and understood the entire value chain from mine to magnet. It elevated our investor discussions and materially strengthened how Peak was perceived by the market.
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How we start
A working session first
We sharpen your value proposition and back it with independent research: a market analysis and a commercial chapter for your feasibility study that lenders believe.
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Positioning Review
AUD 4,500 + GST · Fixed fee · Five working days
A working session on your goals and audiences, then a review of your presentation, website and one further document through the eyes of investors and partners. You receive an audience map, a materials review, your five priority changes, core story and key messages, and a costed action plan, presented in a 60-minute findings meeting.
Get in touchFee credited in full against projects of AUD 15,000 or more within three months. The credit is not refundable or transferable.
